The TREND MONITOR The FINANCIAL SCORECARD The COMPETITIVE FRAMEWORK The BIG PICTURE

SAMPLE RESEARCH

The RSEG Oil Report
December 2006

Awaiting the Cavalry

Unless OPEC implements the full 1.2 MMb/d production cut pledged in October, forward coverage by commercial petroleum stocks in the OECD could balloon to 57 days in 2Q07. This would be very bearish for prices.  The current WTI forward strip appears to be a bet on a more robust supply/demand balance near-term than currently foreseen and/or a return of non-fundamental factors to the driver's seat.

The Natural Edge
September 2006

Natural Edge Extra: Digging in for Winter

With the winter strip (October-March average) falling to $6.95/MMBtu, this much is clear: the correction we anticipated in natural gas forward prices has arrived.
Take your cues in October from the market reaction to storage injections. Although we believe the bottom is near, prices could face additional pressure as inventory surpasses the 3.4 Tcf historical high.
This is a difficult time to depend heavily on short-term prices or to be production-weighted toward storage or market-constrained supply areas.